On the whole, Lib Dems can probably be broadly satisfied with our current performance. The latest poll I’ve seen (from ComRes in the Independent) puts us on 18% – so, despite a significant Tory revival, we have not been squeezed.
One might reasonably argue that we should have done better out of Labour’s current demise, but my suspicion is that things will tighten as the general election comes closer, and Nick Clegg – who impresses me more and more – gets the greater media attention he deserves.
But that’s a pretty passive approach. How could the party be more proactive in improving it’s position in the polls and in the forthcoming elections?
First and foremost we need to identify the problem. With opinion polls, the devil is always in the detail. Those who know me well know that I have a number of bees in my bonnet, the largest of which is that I constantly harp on about Propensity to Vote (PTV). The latest ComRes poll shows a somewhat unlikely 74% of Conservatives saying that they are ‘absolutely certain’ to vote, as opposed to 58% of Labour supporters, and 50% of Liberal Democrat supporters.
Now you don’t have to be a mathematical genius to work this one out, do you? If 60% of our supporters felt ‘absolutely certain’ about voting we would pass our share at the last general election; and if we had the same PTV as the Tories, we would be the second party! Yes, there are ‘Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics’, but any experienced campaigner can feel this on the doorstep.
For me, then, our greatest task over the next two years is motivating our supporters to vote. How?
My suggestion is a NATIONAL Survey. Every year, we ask residents in our local council areas their opinions on local issues. Let’s organise a national survey of supporters, where we go out on the doorstep with a questionnaire from Nick asking, face-to-face, known probable supporters what the key issues are for them. Let’s target to ask AT LEAST 100,000 to make it one of the biggest ever national surveys of a political party’s supporters. This is an exercise that every constituency association could join.
The results of such a survey would give us the policy priorities of our potential supporters, as well as valuable information in the run up to a general election, and allow our parliamentary team to feel confident in putting forward Lib Dem policies. If we want to motivate more of the 50% of our supporters who currently plan to stay at home on polling day to come out, we need to understand their views and opinions; their priorities.
You can put my constituency down for £500, Nick.
* Martin Land is a Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat activist.