Whoever said that people tend to believe whichever opinion poll shows their party in the best light certainly hit the nail on the head. When I was younger, Liberals never believed Gallup polls because they generally showed the Tories in a better light than we wanted to believe (and they were published in a less than liberal Daily).
My personal prejudice is against YouGov polls, mainly because I went to school with its founder and the boy, as the old saying goes, is the father of the man. YouGov are now showing Ken Livingstone as highly likely to lose, which if it’s true, demonstrates that Londoners have a much better sense of humour than Boris.
There have been a flurry of polls that show the Tories to be ahead of Labour by 9%, 13%, even an incredible 16%.
And they all show the Liberal Democrats in a favourable light, with the latest from ICM showing us on 21%.
All well and good, and pretty damn clear. The problem is, I can’t find it. We are out there on the doorstep, talking to people everyday – after all, there are elections coming up. Now, if you want to find Tories, Huntingdon is as good a place as any – in fact given that until 2001 it was the safest Tory seat in the country, it’s better than almost anywhere else. Sure, we are finding lot’s of Tories, but no more than last year. Frankly, a few less.
So am I saying that I don’t believe the pollsters? Well, no. I think they are reporting pretty fairly what they are finding. The problem is I think that a large part of the electorate is up for grabs. Swinging backwards and forwards in response to what or who they heard last.
But, you see, I think that’s good news. People are listening to what we have to say on the doorstep. It’s a good time to talk to people. They no longer trust Labour, that’s evident, but they are mostly wise enough to be suspicious of a Tory party that is supposedly in favour of the environment, the NHS and public services. I think, potentially, the next few years could be very good for the Lib Dems. Sure, a lot of that is going to be down to Nick Clegg, but a lot of it could be down to ordinary members and activists, too.
My advice? Well normally I would follow the ALDC mantra and tell all my canvassers that canvassing is about voter identification – and nothing else. But this year – if you have the time (make the time!) – I’d take the trouble to talk to people and to listen. There are an awful lot of people out there at the moment looking for a political home. Let’s take the trouble to make ours warm and welcoming.
Let’s take the trouble to talk.